The Bitcoin charts are changing and the BTCUSD pair might be looking to retrace… But we have multiple scenarios that can play out, so let’s take a look at those and where are the relevant resistance and support levels.
We start with the chart as it is now:
- Bullish Bitcoin: Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) made a strong bullish move and grew by 35% from the 28th of July until the 6th of August.
- After reaching a peak price at $12325, we are seeing early signals for a potential retrace, but Bitcoin remains bullish as long as it is trading above EMA5/EMA10… Here are the different scenarios:
- 1) Bullish Bitcoin. Bitcoin moves higher past $12325 and challenges the next resistance at $13,200. The main challenge to break to move higher here is now sitting at $12,325.
- 2) Bearish Bitcoin. With three days in a row failing to break the last high and EMA10 not being tested since the first of August, Bitcoin can potentially move down looking first at $11,260 as support (EMA10), followed by $10,400 (EMA50) if EMA10 can be broken with good strength and volume.
- For the bearish scenario, we can see the MACD starting to curve down. A bearish divergence can be spotted on the RSI but this one still remains strong above 50.
Feeling of the market. Looks like Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) can still make a surprise move and change what is starting to appear as an imminent retrace… The feeling we are getting is that there might be one final push up… If this push doesn’t happen, expect for BTCUSD to move down and test $11,260 first to either bounce here or go a bit lower before we can analyze the next move.
Market action. Any trading above EMA10 (green line / $11260) we consider bullish and Bitcoin’s bullish potential remains to test higher resistance levels/targets.
If Bitcoin breaks below EMA10, we focus on the bearish potential and test the next support.
Altcoins break. Looking at some early signals coming out of the altcoins pairs, Bitcoin might start its retrace within 5-7 days.
1- Do not invest in every ICO – most of them are a scam.
2- Crypto is a heavily manipulated commodity and the price can change at any moment.
3- The creation cost of a coin represents the “wholesale” price – It is always better to buy when the price is close to the creation cost.
4- Crypto has a natural cash flow that dictates the selling pressure. Like, 1800 bitcoins are mine each day so 1800 bitcoin must be bought at the current price (“means market needs new $18 millions of investment every day if the price is $10,000 to maintain the current price“).
5- Patience and timing are key to making a profit:
Buy, when the price is close to the creation cost.
Sell, when the price is way high off the creation cost.