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Bitcoin (BTC) Sideways


Looking at the daily BTC chart, you can clearly see nothing is supporting BTC to go up. I do believe that there is a much higher probability that BTC will continue to chop sideways for the majority of the year, in a range between 3,200 and the low 4000s.

Looking at the chart, we can see that price has been forming a triangle pattern since December (in pink.) Such formations are continuation patterns, and the market has been in a downtrend since the all time high. So, technically, the “continuation” should be to the downside. Regardless, I don’t believe that the downside risk is that great. It is always possible that the market could put in a lower low, and if that happens, I will be happy to buy more. =D However, I do think the downside risk is likely to be limited to around 3200 or so.

Looking at ADX DI , we can see that the DI – (red) in leading, MACD is also in negative trend.

Looking more closely at the 150 EMA (in light blue) we can see that price held it consistently through the beginning of the bull market. Then, price eventually entered a parabolic trend, where the 150 EMA became less significant. Since then, we can see that price has fallen below the 150 EMA , and as the bear market has progressed, we can see that the 150 EMA has been highly resistive. In fact, nearly all of the previous peaks either stopped directly on the 150 EMA , or somewhere near it. Looking at the current price action, you can see that we are just below the 150 EMA .

We can see that the 100 EMA is clearly resistive. That average is currently intersecting other very powerful resistance levels. This clear resistance is why the market volume is so quiet right now. We’re in a sideways consolidation, and until price is able to break higher or lower, volume will probably remain quiet.

As I’ve said on many occasions, I believe that the market will just continue a long grind sideways from here. I don’t see a major breakout toward 6000 in the cards right now. Based on my analyses, I think it is far more likely that Bitcoin will breakout for 6000 closer toward the end of the year. Even then, I believe it is likely to be a slow grind on a slightly uphill slope, as opposed to an explosive breakout to the upside. I still believe that the market has probably bottomed, but we may see a retest of the 3150 level sometime in October, before the next bull market begins.

On a side note, I would like to express my view that Bitcoin is, and will ALWAYS be, the greatest cryptocurrency in existence. Even highly praised coins like Ethereum , Ripple, Litecoin and others. We all have different opinions on that, but my view is that Bitcoin will revolutionize global finance, in a way that completely reshapes our global economic system. It is a freedom provider in every sense of the term. It is REAL money, and the world is slowly waking up to that.
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